AGPN40 KWNM 182054
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1254 PM PST Mon Feb 18 2019

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 18Z surface analysis indicated a cold front south of the
southern California waters, with weak trough along the California
coast. High pressure was centered near 42N144W with ridge
extending east to the PZ5 and northern PZ6 waters. The latest
available Ascat pass from 1745Z indicated a small area of 30 KT
winds over the central California waters embedded in a larger
area of 20 to 25 KT winds covering most of the California waters.
This also matched up well with the GFS forecast fields.

The 12Z models are in very good agreement through the forecast
period, with only a few differences noted mainly during the
extended period. For the short term period through Wednesday
night, the main focus is during the Tuesday night into Wednesday
period as all the models are forecasting a low pressure to move
to near the northwest tip of Washington state by early Wednesday
morning, then move south along the coast through wednesday night
before dissipating Thursday. The associated cold front will also
move south over the area before dissipating over the south waters
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Nearly all of the models are
showing minimal or near gale over the Washington and Oregon
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Plan on using the 12Z GFS
winds, but will use the first sigma level tool to highlight the
stronger winds in the cold advection. Then for the remainder of
the period, the models indicate another cold front will move into
the area late Thursday night and Friday, then moving south across
the area through Saturday night. The GFS/ECMWF and UKMET are all
similar on the timing. Will use the GFS again hear as prefer the
stronger post frontal winds, though even the GFS keeps speeds
below gale.

.SEAS...The 18Z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas
matched up well with the ENP and ECMWF WAM forecast values. Plan
on using a 50/50 blend of ENP and ECMWF WAM through the period.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale Wednesday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
Gale Wednesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
None.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.