Atlantic Text Briefing Package

[Printable Version]

AGNT40 KWNM 151352
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
952 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

High pressure is centered east of the northern NT2 waters this
morning with a ridge axis extending across the NT2 zones. As a
result, offshore wind speeds remain less than 25 kt across the
region. However, conditions will rapidly deteriorate later today
and tonight as a strong cold front moves off the New England and
northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The 06Z NAM Nest winds support our
current forecast with winds strengthening to gale force ahead of
the front overnight across portions of the NT1 and northern NT2 
waters. Post-frontal gales will likely persist into early Tue
before the system clears the region. With no changes to our 
forecast reasoning over the next couple days, grid edits were 
minimal with this update. This system is just one of a series of
cold fronts that will impact our area throughout the forecast
period, so further changes to the extended forecast may be 
necessary later today after evaluating the 12Z guidance.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A series of strong cold fronts will pass SE over the waters
during the next several days. The first strong front will impact
conditions tonight into Tue, the second later Wed into Thu, with
a third strong front approaching the waters later Fri and Fri
night. The best chance for gales is expected with the first two
fronts, with a lower chance for gales later in the week with the
third front.

Over the short term, a late evening ASCAT overpass indicated
winds up to 15 kt or so mainly over the far southern offshore
and northeastern offshore waters as high pressure builds E over
the region. The first strong cold front will approach from the W
during the day today as the high moves off to the E of the area.
The front will cross the waters tonight into Tue, and then stall
off the North Carolina coast later Tue. A weak high pressure 
ridge will pass E over waters N of the stalled front later Tue,
with a weakening ridge over the far southern waters. There 
appears to be an increasing threat for widespread gales both in
advance of, and in the wake of the strong cold front. For the 
early morning package, we will rely on guidance from the high 
resolution 00Z Warw model output, except we will cap winds at 35
kt ahead of the front as the model attempts to place winds well
above 35 kt in patchy areas, and these higher winds are likely 
associated with thunderstorms that will likely form near and in 
advance of the strong cold front. For the early morning package 
we will go ahead and add gales to all of the New England waters,
and to the northern mid-Atlantic offshore waters as well, or all
of the northern NT2 waters, for tonight into Tue, as strong 925
mb winds of 50 to 65 kt develop and spread across these waters.
Caution is also advised for potentially very strong winds and 
very rough seas in and near any of the stronger thunderstorms 
that form near the cold front tonight into Tue. Forecast 
confidence is above average over the short term.

Over the medium range we will trend the forecast toward the
very consistent 00Z ECMWF winds for Tue night through Thu night 
over the region, and use the boost tool which increases the 
ECMWF winds by up to 15 percent on a sliding scale. We will also
make a few manual edits in deference to the previous few OPC 
forecasts, and nearby coastal WFO and TAFB grids. The next 
threat for gales will develop Wed night through Thu as the next
strong cold front crosses the waters from NW to SE. A low
pressure area may form on the stalled front, in advance of the 
next strong cold front, off the N. Carolina coast on Wed, with 
the 00Z ECMWF stronger with this low and associated winds verses
the GFS, UKMET and Canadian GEM guidance. Therefore, we will cap
winds at 30 kt associated with the low as it moves E over 
central NT2 waters on Wed, and continue to closely monitor 
future model guidance. Otherwise, we expect gales to develop as 
the second strong cold front crosses the waters Wed night and 
Thu, with the best chance for gales over eastern NT1 and NE NT2 
waters. There is some potential for gales occurring further W 
over the offshore waters Wed night and Thu, and we will continue
to make adjustments to the forecast over the next few days. 
Conditions will improve Thu night into Fri as high pressure 
builds E over the waters. The high will then shift E of the 
waters Fri night as yet another cold front approaches from the W
and NW. For Thu night through Fri night we will rely on 
something closer to the 00Z ECMWF winds and not boost the winds 
over this time frame, as forecast confidence remains near 
average, and no strong advection appears likely for most of this
time period. Some adjustments will be made in deference to 
nearby coastal WFO and TAFB wind forecasts over the medium 
range. It appears that any gales associated with this third cold
front will not occur until sometime over the upcoming weekend, 
and this threat will be addressed in future OPC forecasts. 

Seas...Both the 00Z Wavewatch and 00Z ECMWF WAM appear to have 
initialized quite well over the offshore waters early this 
morning with seas heights ranging from 2 to 5 feet over the 
region, with the higher seas over the outer offshore waters. 
These two wave models are in pretty good agreement over the 
waters over the next 5 days. We will use a 50/50 blend of these 
two wave models for the early morning package, with a few manual
edits in deference to nearby coastal WFO and TAFB grids, and in 
and near the gale force wind areas where we may add a foot or 
two especially near the north wall of the gulf stream where sea
heights are typically higher in strong cold air advection in the
wake of strong cold fronts.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...The latest ESTOFS and ETSS
guidance show no significant positive surge over the region for 
most of this week. No major adjustments to the surge guidance 
appears necessary at this time.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ800...Gulf of Maine...
     Gale tonight into Tuesday. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale tonight into Tuesday. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale tonight.
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Gale tonight.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...
     Gale tonight.
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale tonight.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale tonight into Tuesday. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Gale tonight into Tuesday. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.

$$

.Forecaster Reinhart/Mills. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:13:54Z, 15 October 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT21 KWBC 151420
OFFNT1

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

New England continental shelf and slope waters from 25 nm
offshore to the Hague Line, except to 1000 fm south of New
England.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ898-160300-
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NEW ENGLAND WATERS...A warm front will lift NE 
over the waters today ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
This cold front will move E and SE over the area tonight, then 
pass S and SE of the waters Tue into Tue night as a weak high 
pressure ridge crosses the waters. A second strong cold front 
will move E and SE across the area Wed, then pass well SE of the 
region Wed night. Another high will build to the W and SW of the 
waters Thu and Thu night and pass S of the area Fri. A third cold
front will approach the region from the W on Fri night.

$$

ANZ800-160300-
Gulf of Maine to the Hague Line-
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds increasing to 25 to 35 kt, then becoming
W 30 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs with 
VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas
7 to 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to
8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas building to 7 to 12
ft.
.THU...NW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming 25 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to
14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 

$$

ANZ805-160300-
Georges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fm-
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas
3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds increasing to 25 to 35 kt, then becoming W 
to NW. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers
and TSTMs with VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to
12 ft. Slight chance of showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft. 
.WED...W to SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas building to 7 to 13
ft.
.THU...NW winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas
8 to 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 6 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas becoming 3 to 5 ft.

$$

ANZ900-160300-
Georges Bank between 68W and the Hague Line-
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S winds less than 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W to SW 25 to
35 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers
with VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W to NW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas
8 to 13 ft. Slight chance of showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED...W to SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas building to 8 to 13
ft.
.THU...NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft. 
.FRI...W winds diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 
to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ810-160300-
South of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk
Point to 1000 fm-
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W to SW 25 to 35 kt.
Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers and 
TSTMs.
.TUE...Winds becoming NW 15 to 25 kt, then becoming W 10 to 20 
kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 7 to 12
ft.
.THU...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 6 to 10 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ815-160300-
South of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to
1000 fm-
1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming SW 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to
7 ft. Showers and isolated TSTMs. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds increasing to 25 to 35 kt, then becoming NW.
Seas building to 7 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to
9 ft. Slight chance of showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7
ft.
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 

$$

.Forecaster Reinhart. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:14:43Z, 15 October 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT22 KWBC 151436
OFFNT2

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

West central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters
beyond 20 nm to 250 nm offshore, including south of Georges Bank
from 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ899-160300-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...High pressure moving E away from
the region today will maintain a weakening ridge over the southern
waters tonight into Tue. A strong cold front will move SE over 
the northern waters tonight and Tue, then stall over the central
and southern waters Tue night. Low pressure will develop along 
the front late Tue night into Wed, then pass E of the area late 
Wed as the associated front moves SE over the southern waters.
A second strong cold front will push SE over the region Wed 
night into Thu. Strong high pressure will build E into the region
later Thu through Fri, then move well E of the area Fri night as
a third cold front approaches the waters from the NW. 

$$

ANZ820-160300-
Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fm-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds increasing to 25 to 35 kt, then becoming NW.
Seas building to 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas
5 to 9 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. 
Slight chance of showers. 
.WED...W winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas
becoming 4 to 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds diminishing to 15 to 20 kt, then becoming 
W to NW 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 3 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ915-160300-
Between 1000 fm and 38.5N west of 69W-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas
3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas
5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.
.TUE...Winds becoming NW 20 to 30 kt, then diminishing to W to 
NW 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.WED...W winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 to 13
ft.
.THU...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ920-160300-
Baltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fm and south of 38.5N to
250 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas
2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas
building to 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE...Winds becoming N to NW 20 to 30 kt, then diminishing to 
10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.
.TUE NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 
ft.
.WED...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt. Seas
3 to 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds increasing to 25 to 35 kt, then becoming 
25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 7 to 13 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt.
Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Winds increasing to SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ905-160300-
East of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fm and 39N-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas
5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.
.TUE...Winds becoming W to NW 25 to 35 kt, then diminishing to 
15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED...W winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas building to 8 to 14
ft.
.THU...NW winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 6 to 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW. Seas subsiding to 4
to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ910-160300-
East of 69W and south of 39N to 250 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE...W to SW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 7 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft. 
.WED...W winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to
7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming NW 30 to 35 kt.
Seas building to 8 to 14 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 11 to 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt.
Seas subsiding to 8 to 14 ft. 
.FRI...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 6 to 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ825-160300-
Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Chance of showers.
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming N to NW. Seas
4 to 8 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to
7 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W to NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming W. Seas
subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers. 
.WED...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming NW 5 to 10 kt.
Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft. 
.FRI...W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming SW 10 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas building
to 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ828-160300-
Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt.
Seas 3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE...N winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to
6 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas
3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. 
.WED...N to NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N to NW winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas
building to 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt.
Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. 
.FRI...Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SW 5 to 15 
kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

ANZ925-160300-
Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas
2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
Scattered showers. 
.TUE...Winds becoming N 20 to 30 kt, then diminishing to 10 to 
20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.
.TUE NIGHT...W to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to
20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.
.WED...SW winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt, becoming W to NW. 
Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 7 to 12 ft. 
.THU...N to NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, then becoming N
to NW 5 to 15 kt. Seas becoming 6 to 10 ft. 
.FRI...N to NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ830-160300-
Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas
3 to 4 ft. Slight chance of showers. 
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas
3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. 
.TUE...Winds becoming N 15 to 25 kt, then becoming N to NE 10 to
15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas
3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. 
.WED...W winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt, then becoming NW 10 to
20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt, then to 5 to 10
kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI...Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SW. Seas
becoming 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 2 to 4 ft. 

$$

ANZ833-160300-
Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Slight chance
of showers. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Chance of showers. 
.TUE...Winds becoming N to NW 10 to 20 kt, then becoming NE 5 to
15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE NIGHT...E to NE winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW 10 to
20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.WED...Winds increasing to W to NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas becoming 3 
to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N to NE winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas
becoming 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI...NE winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 3 to
5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
2 to 4 ft. 

$$

ANZ930-160300-
Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear between 100 nm and 250 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...E winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas 3 to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to SW 5 to 15 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers and TSTMs. 
.WED...W to SW winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas becoming 4 
to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N. Seas 4 to
8 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NE 5 to 15 kt.
Seas becoming 5 to 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 4 to
7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW. Seas
subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

ANZ835-160300-
Cape Fear to 31N to 1000 fm-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance
of showers. 
.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 5 to
15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated TSTMs. 
.TUE...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW 10 to
20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.WED...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Winds becoming N to NE 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to
6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW. Seas
3 to 5 ft. 

$$

ANZ935-160300-
Cape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore-
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming SE. Seas 3 to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. 
.TUE...Winds becoming W to SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. 
Chance of showers and TSTMs. 
.TUE NIGHT...W to SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW. Seas
3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs. 
.WED...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Winds becoming N to NW 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.THU...NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 to 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming E to NE 5 to 10 kt. Seas
4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas subsiding
to 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

.Forecaster Reinhart. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:14:43Z, 15 October 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT01 KWBC 151605
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 
1630 UTC MON OCT 15 2018 

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY 
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION 
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE). 

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT 
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE). 

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH 
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML 

SECURITE 

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 15. 
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 16. 
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 17. 

.WARNINGS. 

...STORM WARNING... 
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 50N75W 996 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 720 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 50N63W 983 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E AND 
480 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 480 NM E AND 840 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
TO 12 FT. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N55W 964 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT 
AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF A FRONT FROM 54N50W TO 44N51W WINDS 35 TO 
50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N47W 966 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE 
QUADRANT...WITHIN 90 NM N OF A FRONT FROM 58N48W TO 60N42W AND E 
OF A FRONT FROM 58N38W TO 50N38W TO 46N42W WINDS 35 TO 55 KT. 
SEAS 12 TO 22 FT...EXCEPT 20 TO 28 FT SE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE 
FROM 41N TO 62N E OF 58W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT. 

...GALE WARNING... 
.E OF 49W AND W OF A LINE FROM 61N46W TO 54N41W WINDS 25 TO 35 
KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST E OF A LINE FROM 61N47W TO 54N40W WINDS 25 TO 
35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

...GALE WARNING... 
.COMPLEX LOW WELL E OF AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF A LINE 
FROM 52N35W TO 46N53W TO 42N35W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 
FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA. 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 64N TO 66N W OF 58W WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 64N W OF GREENLAND WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED. 

.LOW 63N34W 982 MB MOVING NE 05 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 
180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED. 

.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 64 E OF 41W AREA OF 
W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. 

.DENSE FOG. 30 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM 
WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 51N55W TO 48N52W. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING. 

.HIGH 38N66W 1026 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N43W 1029 MB. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA. 

.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.GULF OF MEXICO 06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 29.5N94W TO 
27N97.5W. W OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 29.5N91.5W TO 27.5N96W TO 
23N96W TO 21N97W. N OF 26N W OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT. S OF 26N W OF FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 29N91W TO 27.5N95.5W THEN 
STATIONARY TO 25N96W TO 21N95W TO 18.5N95W. N OF 26N W OF FRONT 
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. S OF 26N W OF FRONT NW 
TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF 21N.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 27.5N95W THEN 
STATIONARY TO 22N96W TO 18.5N95W. N OF 26N W OF FRONT N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT W OF 94.5W. S OF 26N W OF FRONT 
NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 
19.5N96W.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 23N35W TO 11N35W TO 10N47W TO 
12N52W TO 18N52W TO 22N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 17N57W TO 17N52W TO 
11N35W TO 07N35W TO 07N40W TO 13N57W TO 17N57W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ATLC WATERS FROM 15N TO 
22N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE 
SWELL. 

.ATLC N OF 30N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 25N TO 30N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

.CARIBBEAN LOW PRES NEAR 16N83W 1007 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CARIBBEAN LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE...NEAR 16.5N87W 1007 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES W OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.GULF OF MEXICO 12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 20.5N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W 
AND 92W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Last Update:16:06Z, 15 October 2018
Updates: Four times per day