Atlantic Text Briefing Package

[Printable Version]

AGNT40 KWNM 180138
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
838 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

The latest NCEP surface analysis indicates low pres off the mid
Atlc coast to the E of the Virginia Capes, and current surface 
reports indicate up to 25 kt near the low in the NT2 offshore 
waters. The 12Z/18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF all indicate the low will
rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours as it moves through the
nrn NT2 waters, and the models have been consistently indicating
winds increasing to storm force over the Gulf Stream by Sun in NE
NT2. The previous forecast went up to 55 kt in the offshore
waters, and confidence is above average on the storm warnings as
the models have been in good agreement on that for several days.
The models then indicate additional strengthening after the low
passes E of the offshore waters late Sun, and nearly all
solutions have indicated hurricane force winds will develop in
the SW semicircle for several days now. The previous forecast
stayed near continuity, and this is well supported by the 18Z
guidance. As a result, planning on continuing with previous wind 
grids and headlines as a result of the good model support.
However, will boost seas over nrn NT2 on Sun to about 20 ft as
the 12Z wave models seemed slow with the development of seas in
the strong cold advection.

Otherwise, the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF agree somewhat well through
the forecast period, though the GFS is stronger than the 12Z
ECMWF in warm advection over the colder NT1 waters. The previous
stayed closer to the ECMWF solution, which had winds only up to
25 kt in the SW flow ahead of the front. This still seems more
reasonable than the GFS which had winds above 30 kt for Mon night
into Tue. As a result, planning on staying near continuity for
the remainder of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Current Conditions...The 12z ncep surface analysis shows a 983 
mb low centered about 300 nm E of Newfoundland, with a strong 
cold front extending SW from the low and across the southern nt2 
waters into the Savannah River region. The analysis shows 
another low centered along the Georgia/South Carolina border, 
which is expected to track NE into the northern nt2 waters 
tonight while strengthening. The analysis also indicated a high 
centered over eastern Pennsylvania, which is current moving E
over the Georges Bank waters. Latest available ascat and ascat 
hi-res passes from a few hours ago show 20 to 25 kt winds along
the eastern edge of the nt1 and northern nt2 waters, and also in
NE flow near the Carolina coast.

Models/Forecast...A developing low will move off the mid Atlantic
coast early tonight, strengthen as it passes NE over the northern
nt2 waters later tonight into early Sun, then move off to the E
later Sun while continuing to strengthen. The nam and medium 
range models are in good overall agreement across the offshore 
waters for tonight and Sun, although the 12z ecmwf looks too slow
in increasing the winds with the developing low, while the 12z
gfs is too shallow with the low's central pressure. The 00z ecmwf
appears to be the most representative and consistent model
solution through Sun, so it will be used for the wind grids over
that timeframe. Otherwise, will stay with the previous wind 
grids for Sun night through the rest of the forecast period in 
order to maintain continuity, which are based mainly on an older
run of the ecwmf, which is favored for the mid to longer range
part of the forecast because the gfs looks overdone with the SW
flow in the nt1 area for Tue through Wed ahead of a cold front. 
The 00z ecmwf and gfs 30m both have storm force winds for early 
Sun, but E of the offshore waters. Most of the medium range 
models show hurricane force winds with the low by late Sun, but 
well E of the offshore waters. Confidence is above average for
the gale warnings and average for the storm warnings.

Seas...The ecmwf wam and wavewatch are in very good agreement 
over the offshore waters for today and tonight, but the ecmwf 
wam has been building up the seas up more quickly in the waters 
just E of the northern nt2 area for Sun, which looks most 
reasonable given that the models all show the developing low 
going into a rapid deepening phase for this timeframe. Will stay 
with the previous wave height grids for the entire forecast
period, which are based on the 00z ecmwf wam, in order to be 
consistent with the preferred 00z ecmwf wind grids.

Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale Sunday.
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale Sunday.
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale Sunday.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale tonight into Sunday. 
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale tonight into Sunday. 
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Storm Sunday.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Gale tonight.
     Storm Sunday.
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Gale tonight.
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Gale tonight.

$$

.Forecaster Kells/Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:01:40Z, 18 February 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT21 KWBC 180244
OFFNT1

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

New England continental shelf and slope waters from 25 nm
offshore to the Hague Line, except to 1000 fm south of New
England.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ898-181515-
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NEW ENGLAND WATERS...A strong high pressure ridge
over the waters will shift E of the area early tonight. Rapidly
intensifying low pressure will track NE to the S of the area
tonight, pass just SE of Georges Bank early Sun, then move off to
the E later Sun. Another ridge will move E over the waters late Sun
into Mon, then shift E and SE of the area late Mon and Mon night.
Low pressure will pass N of the area Tue and Tue night. A third low
will pass N of the area Wed and Wed night, and pull a cold front
SE into the waters Wed night. The cold front will move S across 
the waters Thu, then pass S of the area late Thu and Thu night.

$$

ANZ800-181515-
Gulf of Maine to the Hague Line-
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...Winds shifting to NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Snow with
VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, then becoming N to
NE less than 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...Winds shifting to S 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds increasing to 20 to 25 kt, then becoming SW.
Seas building to 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW winds increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...Winds veering to NE 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft.

$$

ANZ805-181515-
Georges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fm-
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E to SE 20 to 30 kt.
Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...Winds shifting to NW 25 to 35 kt, then becoming N to NW 20 to
30 kt. Seas building to 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N to NW winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, then becoming
variable 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...Winds becoming S 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming SW 20 to 25 kt. Seas
building to 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas
becoming 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...Winds veering to NE 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft.

$$

ANZ900-181515-
Georges Bank between 68W and the Hague Line-
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...Winds increasing to NW 30 to 40 kt, then becoming N to NW 20
to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 to 13 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN NIGHT...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N to NE 5 to 15 kt.
Seas subsiding to 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8
ft.
.TUE...SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 7 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas building to 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to
9 ft.
.THU...Winds diminishing to NE 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 6
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to
5 ft.

$$

ANZ810-181515-
South of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk
Point to 1000 fm-
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E to SE 20 to 30 kt. Seas
5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...Winds shifting to NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 7 to 11
ft. Chance of rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N to NW winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, then becoming
SE less than 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
6 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 6 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas becoming 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming NE. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft.

$$

ANZ815-181515-
South of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to
1000 fm-
944 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7
ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds backing to NW 20 to 30 kt, then diminishing to 10 to 20
kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas subsiding to
3 to 5 ft.
.MON...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas
building to 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to NE. Seas subsiding to 3 to
5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

.Forecaster Kells. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:02:46Z, 18 February 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT22 KWBC 180245
OFFNT2

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

West central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters
beyond 20 nm to 250 nm offshore, including south of Georges Bank
from 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ899-181515-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...A high pressure ridge will pass
N of the area early tonight. Low pressure to the E of the Virginia
Capes will pass NE over the northern waters tonight into Sun while
rapidly intensifying. High pressure will move E into the waters 
later Sun through Mon, shift E of the area Mon night, and drift S
through Thu night while maintaining a ridge over the region. A 
cold front will move SE into the far NW waters Wed night, then 
continue S across the northern waters Thu and Thu night. 

$$

ANZ820-181515-
Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fm-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming NW. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain
with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...NW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming N to NW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
building to 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Winds becoming variable 5 to 15 kt, then becoming SE.
Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
.MON...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas building
to 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE and TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT and THU...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Winds shifting to N to NE 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

ANZ915-181515-
Between 1000 fm and 38.5N west of 69W-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W to NW 25 to 35 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft, building to 9 to 14 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...NW winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming N to NW 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to
16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E to NE 10 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...Winds veering to S 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas becoming 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT and WED...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ920-181515-
Baltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fm and south of 38.5N to
250 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft, building to 11 to
18 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds veering to NW 30 to 40 kt, then becoming N to NW 15 to
25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...Winds veering to S to SE 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to
5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NW. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ905-181515-
East of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fm and 39N-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S to SE 20 to 30 kt. Seas
6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...Winds increasing to NW 45 to 55 kt, then diminishing to 25 to
35 kt. Seas building to 11 to 19 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming N to NE 5 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 8 to 14 ft.
.MON...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N. Seas 5 to 6
ft.

$$

ANZ910-181515-
East of 69W and south of 39N to 250 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 35 to 45 kt. Seas 6
to 7 ft, building to 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN...Winds veering to W to NW 40 to 50 kt, then becoming NW 25 to
35 kt. Seas building to 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds diminishing to 15 to 25 kt, then becoming NE 10
to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...Winds veering to E to SE 5 to 10 kt, then becoming S 5 to 15
kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to
6 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.WED...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.THU...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming NW. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ825-181515-
Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming NW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 7 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Winds veering to E to NE 5 to 15 kt, then becoming E to
SE 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
.MON...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4
ft.
.TUE...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming SW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming NE. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ828-181515-
Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W to NW. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Chance of rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds veering to N 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog
with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN NIGHT...Winds diminishing to E to NE 5 to 15 kt, then becoming
E 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...S to SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt. Seas
4 to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ925-181515-
Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Scattered showers and TSTMs with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds veering to NW 20 to 30 kt, then becoming N 15 to 25 kt.
Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt, then becoming E 5
to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft.
.MON...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft.
.TUE through WED...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt. Seas
4 to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ830-181515-
Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 5 to 9
ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds veering to N to NW 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Winds diminishing to E to NE 10 to 15 kt, then becoming
E to SE 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding
to 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to
6 ft.

$$

ANZ833-181515-
Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...Winds veering to N 15 to 25 kt, then becoming NE 20 to 25 kt.
Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds becoming 10 to 20 kt, then diminishing to 5 to
10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TUE...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6
ft.

$$

ANZ930-181515-
Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear between 100 nm and 250 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming SW 25 to 35 kt. Seas
5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds diminishing to N to NE 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Scattered showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E to NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...E winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SE 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S to SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED...S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6
ft.
.WED NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.THU...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to
5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW 5 to 15 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ835-181515-
Cape Fear to 31N to 1000 fm-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6
ft. Areas of fog with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds veering to N to NW 10 to 20 kt, then becoming NE. Seas
4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog with VSBY 1 nm or less early.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E to SE 5 to 15 kt. Seas
3 to 6 ft.
.MON...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SE 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft. Areas of fog with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.MON NIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE and TUE NIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...S winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SW. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, diminishing to less than 10
kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ935-181515-
Cape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore-
945 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.TONIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Areas of fog
with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.SUN...Winds veering to N to NW 10 to 20 kt, then becoming NE. Seas
4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog with VSBY 1 nm or less early.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5
to 6 ft.
.MON...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.TUE...SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.WED...SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.THU...S to SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S to SW. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S to SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas
5 to 6 ft.

$$

.Forecaster Kells. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:02:46Z, 18 February 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT01 KWBC 180408
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 
0430 UTC SUN FEB 18 2018 

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY 
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT 
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE). 

PAN PAN 

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FEB 18 
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FEB 19 
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FEB 20 

.WARNINGS. 

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING... 
.LOW 54N38W 973 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. OVER ICE FREE FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 960 NM S AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 
KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT S QUADRANT AND 9 TO 14 FT NW QUADRANT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N37W 958 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM LOW TO 
61N35W. WITHIN 120 NM NW OF FRONT WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 
22 FT. ALSO FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W WINDS 40 TO 50 
KT. SEAS 24 TO 38 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N34W 958 MB. BETWEEN 90 NM AND 180 NM SW 
QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 28 TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
300 NM SW QUADRANT AND OVER ICE FREE WATERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF E 
GREENLAND COAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE N 
OF 53N E OF 49W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 66N33W 970 MB. FROM 60N TO 62N E OF 41W 
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER ICE FREE 
WATERS N OF 56N WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.  

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING... 
.LOW 37N75W 1018 MB MOVING NE 50 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. 
WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N71W 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N66W 999 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT 
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N62W 988 MB. WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT 
WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N56W 987 MB. WITHIN 120 NM W AND SW 
QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 24 TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
240 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. 
SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. ALSO FROM 35N TO 45N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W WINDS 
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N40W 983 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
WINDS 60 TO 75 KT. SEAS 30 TO 50 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 W 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS 25 TO 45 FT. ALSO FROM 35N TO 
49N E OF 48W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 32 FT...HIGHEST SW 
QUADRANT.

...STORM WARNING... 
.LOW 53N47W 978 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. OVER ICE FREE WATERS WITHIN 
180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM SW...240 NM W...AND 240 NM N QUADRANTS 
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 59N34W.

...GALE WARNING... 
.LOW 59N57W 997 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER ICE FREE FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
16 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING... 
.MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NW OF A LINE FROM 49N57W TO 
51N48W TO 47N48W AND N OF 61N W OF GREENLAND. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF A LINE 
FROM 60N58W TO 53N49W. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF A LINE 
FROM 59N44W TO 53N51W. 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 52N TO 55N E 
OF 37W. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG N OF 58N W OF 54W. 

.HIGH 43N64W 1031 MB MOVING E 25 KT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N39W 1029 MB. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA. 

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 38N74W 1032 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N59W 1038 MB. 

.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN FEB 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON FEB 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE FEB 20.

.WARNINGS.

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...  
.FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 76W NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W 
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 16.5N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 73.5W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8. REMAINDER 
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. WINDWARD PASSAGE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 77W NE 
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16.5N 
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 690W AND 73.5W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS TO 8. REMAINDER CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. WINDWARD 
PASSAGE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE WINDS 
25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17.5N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. WINDWARD PASSAGE NE WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE WINDS 
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 17.5N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
E OF 70W...INCLUDING THE ATLC PASSAGES...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. REMAINDER CARIBBEAN S OF 16.5N BETWEEN 76W AND 
83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. 
WINDWARD PASSAGE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE WINDS 
25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 13 FT. FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 
74W NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 81.5W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 11 FT. E OF 70W...INCLUDING THE ATLC PASSAGES...NE TO E 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...AND TO 8 FT IN THE ATLC 
PASSAGES. REMAINDER CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE 
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W NE TO E 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. E OF 70W...INCLUDING THE 
ATLC PASSAGES...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...AND 
TO 8 FT IN THE ATLC PASSAGES. REMAINDER CARIBBEAN S OF 17N 
BETWEEN 76W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE 
TO E SWELL. 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 25N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN N SWELL. FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 50W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 20N E OF 50W...AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 50W 
AND 65W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 16N E OF 50W...AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 50W 
AND 65W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...INCLUDING 
ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...INCLUDING ATLC 
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...INCLUDING ATLC 
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W E WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. 

.36 HOUR ATLC FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N 48.5W TO 30N67W. OVER 
FORECAST WATERS N OF FRONT E OF 60W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 
9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N44W TO 28N50W TO 29N62W. N 
OF FRONT N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.48 HOUR GULF OF MEXICO FORECAST S OF 25N E OF 84W...INCLUDING 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Last Update:04:09Z, 18 February 2018
Updates: Four times per day