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Atlantic:  High Seas

North Atlantic Marine Weather Discussion

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AGNT40 KWNM 112010
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
310 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

A cold front will continue to move east of the waters and keep 
stronger winds ahead in the short term and low pressure from the 
south will elevate winds over the forecast waters to gale force 
as it moves inland northeast in the extended period. The latest 
Geocolor satellite images continue to show a band of clouds 
associated with a front across the outer zones. The current NCEP 
weather map has high pressure 1044 mb near 40N30W that extends a 
ridge southeast into the outer southern waters while low pressure
just southwest of Greenland has a cold front that extends south 
and passes over the outer zones. Pressure gradient has started to
relax over the eastern portion of the Baltimore Canyon though 
winds are still in the gale force range. 

At 500 MB, there is some energy embedded in upper level trough 
that is moving east of the waters and will be followed by upper 
level ridge. Lapse rates show a brief period of stable air to 
impact the forecast waters in the short term. Otherwise, Models 
still have a good agreement on keep pushing cold front east of 
the waters in the short term and diminishing gale force winds 
over the Baltimore Canyon. Low pressure will form over the 
southeastern states and move northeast inland and that will force
a tighter pressure gradient in the southeastern quadrant of the 
low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic waters. Will stay close to 
GFS for winds. 

.SEAS...have continued to subside over the eastern portion and 
they now peak at 13 ft over the Baltimore Canyon. Otherwise seas
now range between 6 and 12 ft over most of the region except the
far southwestern waters where they are just below 6 ft. Both 
NWW3 and ECMWFWAVE models fairly fit the observed seas pattern. 
NWW3 still has a better areal coverage of the seas above 12 ft 
over the Baltimore Canyon and will continue to use NWW3 for seas.
In the short term, seas will continue to subside to peaks below 
12 ft until the next episode of gales over the weekend that will 
be associated with low pressure. Seas will gradually start to 
build over the southeastern waters in the extended period.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...No significant positive
surge is expected within the next couple of days. Toward the end
of the week Thu into Fri, latest ESTOFS indicates positive surge
values 1-2 ft along the northern FL, GA, and SC coasts in strong
onshore flow. ETSS values are generally half those values.
Consult your local National Weather Service office for more
information. 


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ800...Gulf of Maine...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday. 
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday. 
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday. 
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Sunday night. 
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Gale Possible Sunday.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Sunday night. 
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. 
     Storm Possible Sunday.
     Gale Possible Sunday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Monday. 
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Sunday night. 
.ANZ825...Inner Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light...
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.ANZ828...Inner Waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light...
     Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday. 
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday. 
.ANZ830...Inner Waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras...
     Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday. 
.ANZ833...Inner Waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear...
     Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday. 
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Gale Possible Friday night into Sunday. 
.ANZ835...Inner Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. 
.ANZ935...Outer Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night. 

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.