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Atlantic:  High Seas

North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion

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AGPN40 KWNM 232058
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1258 PM PST Sat Jan 23 2021

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Several fronts will move over the northern waters while a weak 
high pressure will remain to the west of the waters. The latest 
NCEP synoptic surface weather map has low pressure 993 mb in the 
gulf of Alaska with gale force winds that extends a front 
southeast that stretches as a warm front to end just northwest of
the Washington waters. High pressure 1037 mb near 35N145W 
extends a weak ridge into the northern waters. Pressure gradient 
is relaxed over the waters but will become tight and winds will 
be elevated to gale force threshold over the northern waters in 
the short term. 

At 500 Mb, global models have some energy in a trough over the 
region that extends inland while upper level high pressure along 
150W north of 30N extends a ridge through the Gulf of Alaska 
into Canada. In the short term, the energy over the region will 
slowly shift inland while the ridge will weaken over the Gulf of 
Alaska and allow more energy to dip down into the northern 
waters. The high will then extend a ridge across the Aleutian 
Islands and start moving east pushing the energy inland again. 
Similar cycle will repeat in the extended period as the upper 
level high pressure center will meander between 150W and 160W 
near 30N allowing a ridge to rebuild across the Aleutian Islands 
and and move east into the Gulf of Alaska pushing energy from the
north to dip down into the northern waters. A fairly unstable 
atmosphere is depicted with strong mixing through most of the 
period across the region. As such, the weather pattern will be 
very active across the region. 
 
Global models GFS/CMC/NOGAPS/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR have initialized 
generally well the latest synoptic surface observations. Most of 
the weather enhancing features will move across the forecast 
waters. In the short term, the models agree well on keeping a 
modest pressure gradient over the waters. There are small 
differences among the models that are mainly on the extent of 
winds areal coverage in the gale force range and also on timing 
of the fronts that will pass over the waters. GFS and CMC have 
slightly larger area covered by enhanced winds and are even 
stronger than NOGAPS and UKMETHR while ECMWFHR has the weakest 
winds. Both CMC and GFS have a better and are much closer to the 
observations and will therefore use GFS for winds and retain the 
warning headlines. 

.SEAS...are relatively large across the forecast waters with a
peak at 14 ft over the central waters. Otherwise they range
between 8 and 12 ft over the rest of the waters. NWW3 and
ECMWFWAVE models fit generally well the observed seas and have
been quite consistent with observations in previous runs. Both
wave models still agree on keeping relatively larger seas over
the central waters initially and that is reasonable as winds are
still enhanced over this area. Will use ENP for seas. 


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Storm Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. 
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Sunday night. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Sunday night. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Sunday. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Sunday into Sunday night. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Wednesday. 
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. 
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Sunday into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. 
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Sunday into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Sunday into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Monday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
.PZZ945...Outer Waters from 120W to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Monday.
     Gale Possible Monday night.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.