North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion

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AGPN40 KWNM 151402
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
702 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

No significant changes for the wind and wave grids are 
anticipated for the morning update. The 06Z GFS and NAM remain 
very close to the previous 00Z runs. High pressure aloft and at 
the surface will continue to dominate through the period, with 
winds mostly 15 KT or less. The 12Z sea state analysis indicated 
that the observed seas matched up very well with the ENP forecast
values. 

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Per the 06Z NCEP surface analysis a high pressure ridge extended
its ridge across the Washington and Oregon waters. A 1017 mb low
was over the central California waters near 36N128W with its 
influence stretching into the southern California waters. The
latest available ASCAT high resolution imagery revealed 10-20 kt
winds over the Washington and Oregon waters, with 5-15 kt winds
over the southern California waters roughly east of 123W.

00Z guidance continues the the trend seen in the last few days
regarding good model agreement over the forecast period. So 
favored the 00Z GFS winds through day 4, allowing the prior 12Z 
GFS winds to remain in place on day 5. Anticipate high pressure 
ridging at the surface to be the dominate feature over the 
Washington, Oregon and California offshore waters during the 5 
day period. Blocking at the upper levels will keep the main 
surface low track generally west of the waters through at least 
day 5.

.SEAS...The 00Z ENP and ECMWF WAM initialized well when compared
to 00Z observations with the 00Z guidance also comparing well to
the 06Z observations. Due to the preference to use the 00Z GFS
winds through day 4, will favor the 00Z ENP through day 4,
allowing the prior wave grids to remain in place for day 5.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier/Holley. Ocean Prediction Center.