ESTOFS Atlantic Storm Surge Model Guidance

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Image map of ESTOFS Surge Model Guidance Areas East New England New York New Jersey MidAtlantic Southeast E. Gulf of Mexico W. Guilf of Mexico

About ESTOFS Storm Surge Model Guidance

ESTOFS (Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System) is a collaboration between the NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Lab and NOAA/NCEP.

ESTOFS provides a second operational set of forecast guidance in addition to the ET-SURGE (ETSS) model and uses the circulation model ADCIRC. Tides are included in ESTOFS and forced at its boundaries from the global tidal model TPXO8-ATLAS and refined further within ADCIRC.

ESTOFS Atlantic v 2.0 provides a coastal grid resolution of up to 200 m and an overland resolution extending to approximately the 10 m elevation relative to NAVD88. For more details see: ESTOFS v 2.0 Service Change Notice

ESTOFS Pacific provides coastal grid resolutions of 2.5 km for the U.S. West Coast, 2.5 km for Hawaii, and 6 km for Alaska. For more details see: ESTOFS Pacific Service Change Notice

The ESTOFS model is run on NCEP's central computing system four times daily out to 180 hours producing numerical storm surge guidance for extratropical systems. The model is forced by real time output of winds and pressures from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The current coverage of the operational ESTOFS forecast domains around the U.S. includes those shown in the Figure plus in the Caribbean surrounding Puerto Rico(not shown here).

The ready availability of numerical guidance from the operational ESTOFS will enhance the ability of NCEP (OPC and NHC/TAFB) to provide operational extratropical coastal storm surge guidance in the Marine Weather Discussion (MWD), also known as MIM.

Data Availability

DATA is available in GRIB and NetCDF formats via NOMADS:


NOAA information regarding storm surge terminology (pdf download).

Note on Tropical Cyclone Events

The Extra-Tropical Storm Surge information shown here should not be used for tropical cyclone events. For official storm surge information associated with tropical cyclones, please consult advisories and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center.