NAEFS Probabilistic Wind Speed Guidance

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The images above are from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) and depict the probability of 10-meter winds above ground reaching or exceeding a certain threshold. The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a weather modeling system run jointly by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) and the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) to provide numerical weather prediction (NWP) products to weather forecasters in both countries for a forecast period that runs out to 2 weeks in the future.

The NAEFS combines the Canadian global forecast model ensemble and the NWS global forecast model ensemble into a joint ensemble that creates weather forecasts for all of North America. At present, all the national weather agencies in North America are participating in NAEFS - the Meteorological Service of Canada, the National Meteorological Service of Mexico, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS.

More information is available from NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).